CALIFORNIA AFTERMATH – OVERNIGHT:  The wonks are already at work analyzing the California recall, won handily by incumbent incompetent Gavin Newsom.  I guess the people of California felt more comfortable with the devil they know.

Republicans are finding things to like in the voting pattern.   I hope this isn't wishful thinking.  From RedState: 

Though the effort to relieve California Dictator Gov. Gavin Newsom of his duties a little early did not go the way recall proponents wanted it to, all hope is not lost on the electoral front for Republicans because though Newsom will remain in office at least until the 2022 gubernatorial election, there are warning signs among the results from the recall (which are still coming in) that do not bode well for Democrats in the state and nationally going into the 2022 midterms.

Longtime polling analyst Dave Wasserman looked at the tea leaves among the incoming numbers for various competitive House districts in the state, and said the “Yes” numbers in some of them pointed to “an environment in which Republicans take back the House and Senate in 2022”:

Even though the recall resoundingly failed, "Yes" is on track to prevail in a handful of competitive House districts, including in Orange County.

Even a 20-25% "No" margin statewide could be consistent w/ an environment in which Republicans take back the House & Senate in 2022.

In a follow-up tweet, he emphasized putting “off-year races in context,” noting that the “same ~5 pt swing right from the 2020 Biden/Trump margin would easily win Rs the House & Senate in 2022”:

I can't overstate the need to put these off-year races in context. If Newsom survives by 25% (?) and McAuliffe were to win by 5%, they'd be spun as big Dem wins.

But that same ~5 pt swing right from the 2020 Biden/Trump margin would easily win Rs the House & Senate in 2022.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 15, 2021

Beyond Wasserman’s analysis was polling/election numbers cruncher Nate Cohn, who pointed to the fact that Newsom’s Latino support was nothing to write home about:

According to the California exit poll, Newsom fared better among white college graduates than nonwhite voters in the state.

Newsom isn't even faring better among Latino than non-Latino voters pic.twitter.com/5nLkMnWcvg
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

This dovetails with what we’ve seen in states like Texas, where Democrats are seeing a steady, persistent drop in support among Latino voters.

COMMENT:  Read the rest and tell me what you think.  The drop in Latino support for the Dems is a growing story, and possibly the most critical political story in the next year.  It's also been noted that Democratic support has been dropping among Asian Americans, the fastest-growing minority in the country. 

If the Dems falter among Latinos and Asian-Americans, they're in a very tough spot.  There just aren't enough modern-dance majors and social-justice minors to make up the difference. 

September 15, 2021